Russian freight market – trends and perspectives until 2023

09.10.2019

Until 2023, the road freight transport market will grow at a 5.2% annually

Marketing Agency M. A. Research was presented at the 5th conference "Freight transportation: opportunities and prospects" report to PR Director Elizabeth Sharipova interesting perspective on the state and prospects of the domestic freight market to 2023.

So, M. A. Research that by the end of 2018 the turnover of goods of motor transport in Russia amounted to 140 billion t•km and ₽826,2 billion (+6.8%) versus, respectively, 126 billion t•km and ₽770 billion a year earlier. According to analysts, at the end of 2019 will be reached a mark of 151 billion tons•km, while in terms of value – record values at ₽872 billion (+5.5 percent). Interestingly, this estimate is at odds with the analysts ' estimates of BusinesStat, in the study of which the capacity market in 2018 in monetary terms is estimated at ₽814,9 billion (+7,7%). Analysts note: "the Growth of cost volume of the market for the year in the range of 5-6% will be provided primarily by increasing the distance of road transport with minimal increase in the average revenue rate".

So M. A. Research believes that in 2019 the market for automotive transportation will continue a positive trend, despite a decline in volume of transported goods against the backdrop of stagnating industrial production and construction, and reduction of real income of population.
However, despite the increase in formal statistics, said Sharipova, the market is reducing margins. The explanation for this lies in the economic plane (the increase in the cost of transport) and area of state policy (tighter fiscal policy, penalties gossistem, a tax increase).
Another trend was the slowing of the pace of industry consolidation. Thus, according to Sharipova, remains fairly high proportion of "gray" market, which according to the Agency is estimated at 30%.
In the coming years, said Sharipov, the conditions of the carriers will also be difficult: "the Introduction of a register of carriers will be affected even more than the implementation of "Plato".
In 2018, the international segment grew more rapidly than the inner, due to the increase in exports as Europe and China, as well as increase the share of Russian companies in the total volume of cargo transportation of foreign trade.
At the same time retain risks associated with the intensification of protectionism on a global level, hampering the international trading exchange through sanctions, administrative barriers, customs duties, etc., these factors will constrain the growth of the segment of international cargo during the forecast period (2019-2023 years) and to encourage a redistribution of traffic in favor of domestic logistics.

In the research M. A. Research notes: "In the years 2019-2023 expected to increase the value of the road transport market on average by 5.2% a year."
Thus, according to M. A. Research, revenue in the segment of groupage cargo will grow more rapidly than overall road transport market, despite the fact that the rate of growth compared to the previous five years will slow to 7.3%.
Evaluation M. A. Research, road transport provides over 90 per cent of the value of market volume of cargoes. The highest growth rate in 2014-2018 (CAGR = 23%) was observed in the segment of parcel delivery (domestic and transboundary shipment of e-commerce, without the "Mail of Russia"). The share of parcels in LTL in 2018 amounted to about 14%.
Further, by the end of 2023, the volume of the segment of modular cargo can reach ₽of 252.0 billion, and its share in the freight market of commercial vehicles will be 23.6%. "This will be a significant change in the structure of the sentences with the strengthening of the transport companies that specialize in this area", – analysts say..