The conference "AUTOMOTIVE industry-2019" summarizes the preliminary results of the outgoing year

11.12.2019

"ASM-holding" predicts a cars decline by 4.8%, and trucks – an increase of 0.8%

Today, December 11, 2019 JSC "avtosel'khozmash-holding" and sponsor of the forum LLC "Avtotor holding" was held in the chamber of Commerce of the Russian Federation has 28 total automotive conference "AUTOMOTIVE industry-2019" on topic "results of the automobile industry in 2019 and the prospect of innovative development of the industry for the period till 2025". The conference was attended by the heads of automotive companies, automotive component manufacturers, representatives of consulting and analytical companies, as well as journalists of specialized media.
On the 28th of the conference were preliminary results of work of the enterprises of the Russian automotive industry in the year 2019, the analysis of the structure of the Russian automotive market, as well as the perspectives of innovation development of the domestic automobile industry in accordance with the "Strategy of development of automotive industry of the Russian Federation for the period until 2025" (Approved by the decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of April 28, 2018 No. 831-R).
Summing up the outcomes and analysis of work of the enterprises of the Russian automotive industry in 2019 was made by the Director research educational centre of competence in the field of technology transfer and knowledge management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Igor Bychkov with a somewhat academic report on "Analysis of the development strategy of car industry: new challenges and proposals for its improvement". I will give only the most important data and conclusions from the report:

According to the tables visible to the retrospective production growth in the country in 2000-2010-x the so-called "Russian cars" regarding the growth of the domestic automobile industry 

The greatest success of government regulations on industrial Assembly Bychkov believes  No. 166 of March 2005, which guaranteed the 7-year exemption from customs duties the importation of automotive components for vehicle Assembly and signed by 29 of the world's automakers, and No. 328 of April 2014 to stimulate demand for vehicles (including fleet renewal and support of R & d and export), as well as localization of production of cars and components. So, the result of these government regulations, Mr. Steers called: "Stop the import before, just used cars, which replaced the new cars are already assembled in Russia". In addition, after the reduction of import duties on imported cars in the framework of Russia's accession to the WTO, to compensate for the loss of competitiveness of domestic producers since 2012, was introduced a recycling fee, the proceeds of which are then used to subsidize investment activity for the modernization of the production infrastructure and the operational (variable) and fixed costs to ensure the competitiveness of domestic cars (for the maintenance of jobs and for compensation of part of expenses of manufacturers of wheeled vehicles on energy use, energy-intensive enterprises of automotive industry in the framework of the subprogram "Automotive industry").

Comparison of domestic autoexport with back 1995 should vividly show that the Russian automotive industry has almost become the industry purely local value

In the report g-on Bychkova noted the following actual problems of the Russian car industry:
a) due to the limitation of domestic demand and low export vehicles there is a considerable underutilization of production capacity, which worsens the financial position of the enterprises.
b) the weak dynamics of production of auto components, which hinders the creation of new jobs, reduces getting added value and leads to a shortfall in significant amounts of revenue in the budget of customs payments
C) the unwillingness of automakers to bring to market new products that meet today's global technological trends of industry development

As recommendations, the Director of the centre transfers offers maximum assistance to domestic producers in the export of (financial and administrative) and capacity utilization: the synergy of fiscal incentives and regulatory tools, focusing on gas technique and measures to upgrade the Park. Competition the domestic automobile industry needs to raise the maximum improvement of the localization and achievement of global competitiveness of the results of intellectual activities, increased participation in consortia, as well as clustering around the major automotive manufacturing – innovative core.
Therefore, the Government of the Russian Federation should make the decision on stimulation of attraction of foreign investments and competencies for localization engineering centers for research and development at the local level to organize the creation of centres for collective use of research and test equipment, structures, and areas, to strengthen international integration and cooperation for research and development and to provide a quicker training of scientists and engineers with a focus on the prospective requirements for the development of industries to professional qualifications (I wonder how all this can be done in the conditions of toughening anti-Russian sanctions, when Washington insists on tighter insulation of our country against the latest Western technology? – ed.)

Characteristically, after a change of ownership in a foreign (Renault-Nissan Group) color of AVTOVAZ became from blue to yellow – thus, domestic producers have become a marginal group in the national automotive industry 

 In the report of the Deputy General Director of JSC "ASM-holding" Alexander Kovrigin on the "Outcome of the automotive industry of the Russian Federation for the year 2019 and the future of the industry until 2025," noted that the forecasts for 2019, assuming at least moderate growth of production and sales, unfortunately, proved to be overly optimistic. So the real volume of production of passenger cars in 2019 (including speakers 10 months) the forecast of "ASM-holding" will not exceed 1.575 million, which is 4.8% less than in 2018.

In the production trucks just marginalized remain, "the Russian foreign cars" 

On the truck (including LCV) will be minimal growth of 0.8% to 157 thousand, mainly due to the domestic models (128 million) the decline in the share of foreign cars (29 thousand).

The same as in the cargo industry is happening in the bus – until domestic manufacturers can take a hit

The segment of buses (including minibuses) will shrink by 5.1% to 45 thousand of which 37 million will have on domestic models (mostly of the "GAZ Group" GROOVE).

Forecast of production of the Russian automobile industry in 2020 is: the cars – 1.7 million (+7,9%), the trucks – 160 thousand (+1.6 percent), on buses – 48 thousand (+5.4 percent).

Top 3 on major categories of vehicle on the Russian market in the first 10 months of this year (there is reason to believe that by the end of 2019, the balance of power will not change)

Forecast sales for 2019 is for passenger vehicles – 1.7 million (+10.2 percent), according to LCV – 102 million (2.9 percent),  for trucks (MCV+HCV) – 77 million (4.9 percent) and on buses – 16 million (+23,1%). Market forecast for 2020 is more optimistic (present at the conference much interested on what is based this optimism "ASM-holding", especially given the growth from January 2020 recycling fee, which in conditions of falling real incomes is clearly more customers to showrooms draws  – ed.). Thus, light projected sales growth of 10.2% to 1.7 million (coincidence with the production of random – ed.), for LCV – 6,9% to 109 thousand on the truck – plus of 5.2% to 81 thousand buses – plus 25% to 20 million Forecast for 2025 (see graph), however, seems purely hypothetical.

Data for the Park are nothing new: most cars Park at the VAZ / LADA, the LCV – Gas, the trucks – trucks and buses – the Groove. It's funny that the second place among the bus holds the long-discontinued "borbonica" Kuban "G1"

The Outlook for the domestic automobile industry "ASM-holding" offers to create three vertically integrated concern and a few for the production of automotive components

Benefits for SP seems to be a bit crafty, after all, the social sphere is the most denezhnoemkaya part of the costs of foreign founders, in addition as a little hard to believe in "altruism" of the local authorities in the area of taxes 

 in addition, the conference was the analysis of the implementation of Government programs to support Russian automakers in 2019. This was enough to emotionally reported to the Chairman of the Duma Committee on labor, lipolytica and veterans ' Affairs Nikolay Kolomiytsev. Was informed about the real state of localization of automotive components production and prospects . The Association of Russian automobile dealers (ROAD) have continued their achievements, and gave its original forecast of development of automotive industry and automotive market of Russia for 2020. Its report for the first half of 2019 in the automobile market, as well as the development of electric vehicles market in Russia presented by PwC. Just created a Regional Association of Independent stations also gave her presentation. Reported under the segment of trucks and spoke about the prospects of work within Speke Kaliningrad "Avtotor".

In the second part of the conference they were talking about one of the most promising areas of hydrogen fuel cell technology, the FCEV and hydrogen energy in General, including the competition with the rising popularity of battery electric vehicles. Reports on this subject presented FGUP US University MEI company BM Power of SKOLKOVO and the international Association for hydrogen energy (IAHE).

The outcomes and suggestions of the participants of the conference will be summarized and submitted to the State Duma and the relevant ministries for their use in the preparation of the relevant decisions.

Other reports 28th total automotive conference "AUTOMOTIVE industry-2019" will be addressed in the near future. Follow the news on the portal www.rim3.ru.