In 2018 the Russian market will continue to grow

9 January 2018

Producers are optimistic about the future

In Russia only began the first week of 2018, so long as the majority of companies have not yet summed up the results of the past year. This also applies to the market: detailed statistics will be available at a later date. While it is possible to focus only on data for the the first 11 months, according to which the demand for new cars jumped by 11.7 %. According to the forecast of the Association of European businesses, overall growth in 2017 should be around 10.8 %. Despite the fact that it is just a forecast, some experts are already discussing the prospects for 2018.

In the past month, many dealers were skeptical. At least some of them predict a rise in prices by 15 % that will affect the first signs of market recovery.

However, there were reasons for optimism. For example, in an interview with RBC practice analyst at Ernst & Young to provide services to companies in the automotive sector in the CIS Alexander Ryabukhin gave a positive assessment of the prospects for the coming year. According to his calculations, sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2018 could rise to 12% , to 1.8 million cars. Among the key factors of growth recovery in purchasing power and pent-up demand which is not fully implemented in 2017.

There are other estimates. For example, in the analytical Agency KPMG predicts growth of 3-5 %, to 1.65–1.7 million cars. At the same time, partner, "Industry" consulting company "neo Centre" Alexander Raksha confident that the market is gaining momentum, so that the increase in sales in 2018 may reach 17 %.

No less curious are the measurement of market participants — representatives of car companies and dealerships. For example, Ford is optimistic about 2018 they estimate that the market will jump by 10-15 % (this applies to the market as a whole, not just the Ford brand). A slightly more conservative estimate given in Kia and Hyundai: plus 5 to 7 and 10 %, respectively. At the same time managing Director of Kia Motors Rus Alexander Moinov noted that, while maintaining state support at the level of last year, the growth may reach 10-12 %. But, as we already know, in 2018 the amount of state subsidies to industry may halved. The dependence from state subsidies focused attention and Mitsubishi, according to which the increase in sales will amount to 10-13 %.