RAF-2019 predicts a decline in the global auto industry

19 March 2019

Russian analysts tuned in pessimism

Passing on 19-20 March, the Russian automotive forum began with pessimistic overview of the global automotive industry from IHS Automotive (I.e. of Christ), according to which the global auto industry on the brink of recession, and the world economy is on the brink of recession. This applies to both China's economy and USA the rest of the world. And clearance while not be seen, although the trend is obviously aimed at the reduction of fuel consumption and transition to drive.

In the next report RAMR (T. Arabadji) on Russian market also there is a dicey situation, especially in not only 2017, and with 2013 year. In a whole has been the depletion of the market is actively growing only inexpensive models and SUVs. Export of finished vehicles is poorly developed, but there is a substantial increase in the components (including the fact that the domestic producers seek to collect cars in middle and abroad). Forecast to 2019 – minus 1.8% in sales and for producing a noticeable growth will be in the best case after 2023. Key factors for the domestic automobile industry will be: further localization of "Russian foreign cars" and export. But without the active support of the state to reverse the trend to achieve not succeed.

In the report of AUTOSTAT (P. Udalov), dedicated to the market of cars with mileage greater stability of this market for years and more uniform distribution over the regions. There is a positive tendency to keep the average age of resale on the level of 4.8 years. However, the so-called "deferred demand" for the opinion of the AUTOSTAT has been exhausted and significant growth nor on the market nor on the market of cars with mileage in the coming years are not expected. When 83% to still resold from hands of the hands, while the growth of sales of second hand amounted to 65%, and about one third of them were sold for the system trade-in. 24 brands have already entered the certification program of used cars. 

Sales of new cars in the credit amounted to 40% (+3%), and used – jumped 45%. In General, the auto market grew by 10%.

Continued soon on the portal rim3.ru