Will jump if the price of gasoline to the end of the year?

6 October 2018

Predictions of price behavior of the fuel until the end of 2018

This week Life explored the conflicting opinions of officials about the prospects of gasoline prices until the end of the year. So, the Central Bank claims that the fuel until the end of the year, although Rosstat in September recorded a slight but noticeable rise in prices. In turn, the study of information-analytical center "Cortes" has shown that the price of diesel fuel at the end of September broke the record, so the wholesale price for summer diesel fuel, "Class 5" in the period from 24 to 28 September increased by 423 ruble – to ₽52 471 per tonne. In turn, the wholesale price of different brands of gasoline went their separate courses, so AI-95 fell by ₽38 – to ₽55 359 per ton, and AI-92 has risen in price at ₽37 – to ₽49 427 per ton. Average retail prices for gasoline all rose last week on 1-3 pennies. Formally, the growth is small, but it is said he regularly.
The expert of "international financial centre" Dmitry Chechulin reminded that although the summer price of gasoline and started to decline, but lasted this long, and the decline was not strong, so AI-95 decreased from ₽45,35 per liter to ₽45,05, which is too low. And now the price has exceeded ₽45,47 on the stock exchange and room photos of 45.7 at the gas station. According to him, the trend clearly indicates the continued growth in prices. As the energy market is common to the entire world, and today the Russian neftepererabotchikov much more profitable to supply fuel abroad given the two to three-fold difference with domestic prices. So that Russian consumers should mentally prepare for the European level of fuel prices. Achieving this scale of prices is possible within 1-3 years. Until the end of the year according to the same expert for liter of AI-95 can start to ask ₽47-48. High fuel prices triggers the growth of barrel. So, for the last few days the price of Brent crude soared by 14% – up to $85 per barrel. How much more of this level of prices will be maintained? After a month should take effect the second package of sanctions against Iran that will lead to a decline in the supply of oil to the market up to one million barrels per day.
For this reason the analyst social network for investors eToro in Russia and the CIS Mikhail Mashchenko expressed in that spirit that the high prices will hold as long as speculators do not receive explicit signals about the willingness of major producers – the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia to fill the "liberated" Iran, the volume of supplies.
GC senior analyst "Alpari" Anna Bodrov noted that "In Russia, in addition to the increase in gasoline prices affects the increase of VAT to 20%, expected in 2019 the increase in excise taxes. In the meantime, the price impact and high seasonal fuel demand due to ongoing harvesting. In addition, the owners of the cars came back from vacations and holidays, so the demand for gasoline has objectively increased, so that the sellers can raise prices. At the end of the harvest in October, the rising price of gasoline will stop, but again will resume by December, after which ascending trend may continue at least until spring. On average, AI-95 may storegate until the end of the year by 20-35 cents per liter and AI-92 – by 10-30 cents."
Leading analyst of Forex Optimum Ivan kapustyasky noted that: "the cost of gasoline taxes and the excise tax is 64%, transportation and refinery work – 20%, the price of oil only gives 15%, and the margin of gas stations is only 1%. In fact, the only real way to stop the price increase would be the reduction in excise duties, but this is only possible if a significant worsening of the situation with fuel prices.
Currency strategist GK TeleTrade Alexander Egorov believes that: "more likely fuel prices will fluctuate at small and medium filling stations. They are more dependent on party supplies specific supply chain. In large cities hardest traditionally raise prices at the pump have major highways and in busy areas. Even at the gas station the same large fuel holding price can vary greatly depending on the specific location of the gas station."
Senior analyst, OOO "Expert plus" Maria Salnikova says: "Before the end of the year we expect growth of the price of gasoline, but the New year after the jump can be sudden and dramatic. In prospect for the October–December 2018 support optimistic estimates of the Central Bank and Ministry of economic development will provide stability of the ruble and the government has taken measures to increase the volumes of exchange sales of and compliance with the major oil companies of the agreements to freeze prices. With the New year will introduce a new pricing system for petrol, which will lead to higher prices. The new system will take into account the abolition of export duties and increase taxes for mineral extraction, as well as will be a system of subsidies to the refineries. According to estimates Maria Salnikova, in January 2019 petrol could rise by 6-9%.
However, not all financiers give such a pessimistic forecast. So, the trader-an analyst of the company "Finist" Denis Lisitsyn believes that the increase in gasoline prices is likely, but premature, as yet, the agreement of the refiners with the government to freeze gasoline prices until the end of the year. In addition, the oil companies promised to keep prices of fuel and increase the supply of petroleum products on the domestic market. Until the end of the year, the government will work on a number of measures to curb gasoline prices, including changes in taxation, the introduction of subsidies and the abolition of export duties..