Forecast of the U.S. market ZEV in 2018 adjusted down
3 August 2018
EV sales in the US for the first half of 2018 are not as optimistic as predicted
Alexander Klimov, photos autowp.ru and manufacturers
In the first half of 2018 in North America according to the website EVvolumes.com it was 122 thousand electric and hybrid cars (ZEV), which is 37% more compared to the same period the year before 2016. Of these, 53% were in pure electric vehicles (BEV), and 47% on plug-in hybrids (PHEV). Accordingly, the share of ZEV on the passenger car market in the first half of this year amounted to 1.2% compared to 1.1% in the first half of 2017. In 2017, this growth was consistent from month to month, but this year, in June for the first time, there was a slight decrease.
Sales of electric cars in June specially slowed down so as not to exceed 200 thousand, and to preserve state subsidies for their purchase for another quarter
American consumers (in contrast to Japanese and European) are waiting for a version of the Nissan LEAF model year 2019 with a more succinct 60-kilowatt battery
The second hybrid Chevrolet Volt, sold in 2017 in the amount of 23 300 units. and in the first half of this year fell to 7858 units of Both models accumulate on commodity exchanges the major dealers of their brands.
The second market PHEV Chevrolet Volt to diverge more slowly and stagnates in the drains
Unfortunately, the forecast for 2018 is reduced to 350 thousand, against an earlier forecast, amounting to 400 thousand, as three of the biggest brands ZEV is not reached in the first half of the expected sales. Strong enough sales of the hybrid Toyota Prius PHEV and the PHEV the Honda Clarity did not compensate for the failure of other models.
Toyota Prius PHEV Prime in good demand, but the role of the locomotive of demand does not pull
All three existing models on the market of hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) were implemented for a total amount of 1400 units. during the first 6 months, but that 400 units more than the same period last year.
Sales of electric cars with hydrogen fuel cells yet scanty, but the dynamics are quite good (the photo of the Honda Clarity Fuel Cell)
Still expect better news in the second half of 2018: the unprecedented growth and sales, primarily Tesla Model 3, and the extension of ZEV Park on U.S. roads to 1 million by November.Today, the United States is the second largest national ZEV market after China, but its growth and share in total automotive market less impressive than in many other developed countries. In fact, the main demand and sales of ZEV remains concentrated in only a few States. According to the monitoring of sales ZEV from Auto Alliance, almost 50% of sales of such vehicles in the United States occur in California and another 12% comes from other States with incentives for ZEV, and another 10 States without benefits for ZEV account for 38%.
By 2018 it is expected that every 50 minutes a new car in the U.S. will be electric or hybrid propulsion
The current 2018 will be a landmark for the history of electric vehicles in the United States, as the budget Tesla Model 3 should start to be produced in really large numbers, which is important for Tesla to reduce the semi-queue, and, finally, the show promised its CEO Elon Musk profit. It is expected that the total ZEV sales this year will reach 350 thousand, which is 75% higher than in 2017. The share of electric and hybrid cars in 2018 is likely to reach 2% of the total North American automotive market that will bring US to other more advanced on this major technology markets.
On this chart, Tesla Model 3 to the end of 2018, will finally put the competitors on both blades
Assessment of sales in the first half of the electric car Tesla Model 3 is 24.1 million in the U.S. and 2.5 million in Canada. During this period, Tesla has made 38,3 thousand Model 3, but not all of them came directly to clients, and were in "transit" stage, i.e. in fact, some "sales" of the end of June was postponed to early July. This was done on purpose in order that the market remained below the infamous "200 000" total sales of electric vehicles beyond which Federal tax benefits begin to decline sharply. Crossing this threshold is only a few days in early July, these incentives automatically prolonged for the quarter.Of great interest to analysts represent the volume of weekly production. So, Tesla still managed to reach the level of 5000 units of Model 3 in a week, literally every day, increasing the production. According to Bloomberg monitoring, the average production Model 3 in June was about 2100 per week. At a recent meeting with investors and analysts guide Tesla expressed confidence in achieving the 7000 units in the week as by the end of 2018. This should be interpreted as average, not the peak value of the issue. On this basis, we can expect the production volume at around 160 thousand electric cars of this model and, accordingly, registration in the US at around 130 thousand by 2018.
What page of the site reveals Tesla Model 3 it speaks volumes about what a crucial role this machine plays in the destiny of the company
Despite the shortage of Model 3 remained the best-selling electric car at the end of each month, starting in January. It is expected that by the end of 2018, the Tesla brand is half the ZEV market in the US, and if we consider only pure electric vehicles (BEV) 3 of the 4 are production Tesla. In the first half of 2018 all models Tesla was in the Top 5 of sales.PS is simply a haunting spell of American analysts regarding the prospects of electric car Tesla Model 3 resembles a fairy tale by Korney Chukovsky about the good doctor Dr. Dolittle, "And one word he repeats – Limpopo, Limpopo, Limpopo". Well, if the way of this fashionable "avtogadzhet" will not get your "the dark knight"..
|
|
|
Element was not found.