Russian cars will perform the five-year period with a reduction

25 June 2019

The production of foreign cars in Russia will shrink by 3% in 2019, and 10% in 2024-m

Agency Russian Automotive Market Research (RAMR) published a revised "Forecast of passenger car market in 2019-2024 gg".

Under the baseline scenario of this forecast, for example, in the current 2019 is expected to reduce the production of passenger cars by 3.01% to 1 million 492,1 million, and by 2024 it could fall by 10.1% to 20.5 thousand 1 million While the share of foreign brands in the total volume of production of cars in Russia can be reduced to 72,13%. However, by 2024, the proportion of foreign brands might be a little grow up 73,77%. And from 2021 to 2023 the sector will see the biggest decline. But, this is exactly what draws the baseline scenario, but there are still scenarios optimistic and pessimistic.

According to the optimistic scenario from 2019 will still be a failure – the issue of the Russian cars will not rise above 1 million 90,03 thousand, i.e. decrease by exactly 4% (that's including processed first quarter of the year). However, in 2020-2021 he will be some recovery, which, however, in 2022 and 2023 will be followed by a decline, which in 2024-m will be offset by a notable rise to 1 million of 129.9 million (+3,7%), which will still be below the level 2018 (-0,5%).

Pessimistic scenario do nothing good for the Russian cars not seeing (obviously taking into account the scoring system of localization in the framework of Speke), neither in the short nor in the long term. Thus, the decline in 2019 they will become more significant 6.8% (fully affected by the closure of Ford plants). In 2020, and in the final for the study of 2024-m rise will be minimal, but the failure of the 2021-2023 years (associated, in particular, the enforcement capacity of foreign brands in line with falling demand on the Russian market) is more than significant. As a result, in 2024-m segment of production of the Russian cars will be at the level of only 853,7 million, which is 19.3% below the level of 2019 and almost a quarter (-24,8%) below the 2018.
So dynamics of production of cars of foreign brands in Russia in the next five years will be between "mediocre" and "bad."

PS Forecast of what to say, sad, because even the optimistic variant is actually in the middle of the next decade does not give reason for optimism.

However, just in the industrial Park "Uzlovaya" near Tula has opened a highly equipped factory Haval, which in coming years will become the industrial cluster of a number of Chinese brands (let's not also discount and Geely, Derways in Belarusian Borisov). Given the increasing problem on national Rinke the Chinese auto industry may partially compensate for them, and due to the Russian market. Given dynamic qualities of passenger cars of Chinese brands, they could make a very serious competition, as the domestic brands, LADA and UAZ, that the stability of the quality is just "not suffer". May suffer and neglectedly price segment localized Russian cars. So that domestic producers other arches will still have to break my head how to survive on shrinking like shagreen leather market, and even with the threat of a Chinese tsunami after March of this year, Beijing has allowed the export from the PRC and used cars..