Global auto industry shifts the steering wheel in the direction of electromobility

5 June 2019

Experts Ernst & Young (EY) warning – many automakers are taking a big risk relying on the total transition to electric vehicles

Published on 3rd June in Frankfurt am main study of the British consulting company Ernst & Young (EY) based on the analysis of data on investments in new technologies 16 leading global automakers from Germany, Japan, France, USA, South Korea. However, the Chinese automakers were closed – we can only assert that in China the process is very fast. For example, about their financial success, announced a leading Chinese company for the production of electric cars and hybrids – BYD.
So, here, in 2018, automakers from three continents presented 118 investment projects for the production of conventional cars with internal combustion engines (so-called ICE) in the amount of €22.4 billion, which is 16% less than 2017.
At the same time, investments in capacity expansion for the production of electric cars (BEV and PHEV) increased over the same time last year 97% (i.e. almost half), reaching €8.4 billion, raspredelennykh for 26 projects. And this is excluding R & d and engineering development.
Growth is just unprecedented, because in 2015 and 2016, similar investments did not exceed €1 billion and invested, respectively, only 2 and 3 of the project.
The leader of the trend are a German company. So, for the period 2015-2018, its total investments amounted to €11,07 billion in 29 projects. Followed by French manufacturers (€1,275 billion), Japan (€862 million), Korean (€848 million) and American (€632 million).
While investments are oddly not in the German auto industry, and the Chinese. An effective policy of Beijing for the introduction of electric vehicles in the national automotive industry first at the expense of benefits for buyers, and this year in the form of "carbon credits" expressed in obligatory (and increasing from year to year) the percentage of sales of electric cars and hybrids has led to the concentration of foreign capital in this direction. So, it is not surprising that among the five largest investment projects in the automobile industry of the PRC was carried out with the participation of foreign capital, e.g., factories of BMW and Daimler, who will release their electric cars and hybrids.
In China, about 16 Western and Asian automakers have invested in 2015-2018 €6,13 billion In Germany invested €4,37 billion, in France – €1.61 billion, USA €1.11 billion and India is €848 million Further in terms of investment are Italy, Slovakia, Thailand, Poland, Japan, Sweden, Belgium and the UK.
Accordingly, we can already speak about the global industry of electric vehicles and their components, which joined a dozen countries. However, the group leaders have already decided and that China, Germany and joined them France which still exceeds even the United States. By the way, according to EY in recent years in America had not been sufficiently paid attention to the development of electromobility and hence its backlog for 4 years only 8 projects.
However, the same EY notes that already this year in the US got wise and started to catch up with the gap between the world of the electric trend. For example, Ford will invest €900 million into reconstruction of its plant in Michigan for production of electric vehicles. Interestingly, in the same state invests €270 million in the production of electric cars and GM.
So that is definitely on the face bred EY pattern – flow in the coming years, capital in the global automotive industry from cars with internal combustion engines into electric vehicles.
However, in every barrel of honey has to be a fly in the ointment, as study co-author Constantine Gal, head of EY German in the Department of automobiles and transport, says: "Many manufacturers now put everything on one card. They send billions of dollars to the development and expansion of electromobility and the hard save in other areas". He believes that manufacturers: "make a very bold and expensive bet: they bet on fast and strong growth of sales of electric cars in spite of such persistent problems like lack of infrastructure to charge very high retail prices and low profit margins".
Another author of the study, the expert on the automobile market EY's Peter Fuss also believes that: "the Establishment of mass production of electric vehicles will cost the car in the short and medium term in a huge amount, which will reduce their profitability". In his opinion yet that automakers in Europe and America will be forced to relive the era of the "lean years" forced releasing electric cars in the same plants as the cars with internal combustion engines, but China can just go with a clean slate, building the enterprise immediately for the release of electric vehicles.
The expert predicts: "We will see large-scale restructuring and reduction measures costs until the closing of entire factories."
Although the authors of the study, EY and do not give specific predictions, but they believe that the development of electric vehicles will plow the entire global auto industry, and even its Russian segment will not remain on the sidelines. In fact, withdrawal from Europe (including Russia) and several other markets, and Ford is the clear sign of the beginning of this trend by pulling up Americans to the leaders of electromobility.
Quite natural in this light looks and the desire of the concern FCA priobschatsya to the development of the Alliance Renault-Nissan for electric cars..